Aug 14 - WARNING and $YFI PRICE SPECULATION

Oh my... a word of warning...

Right now everything is still pretty and fun in DeFi world. No one has gotten significantly hurt. The mostly good actors are still acting in the spirit of collaboration and pushing things forward. You maniacs may even bring $YAM back. Cool and fine. But concurrently every single shady crypto person in the world is sitting in a dark room, chatting over zoom or something to scheme up a new way to farm, pump and dump their way to valhalla. You want to bring unwanted attention cough... regulatory... here to the space? Well the next time it will be millions of dollars evaporating and locked up and instead of a bunch of DeFi degens who will make it back on the next thing, it will be actual Karens and Chads who get outraged (bc things like that are not supposed to happen to them) and they'll go and tattle to their parents who are lawyers (bc of course they are) or write letters and call some three letter word government agencies.

Can you do anything to stop this from happening? No. This is what occurs in deregulated markets. We just want you to be aware and be smart. This is not that same lecturing, "read the contracts and evaluate the risk" bullshit the keeps getting echoed by everyone trying to be someone important in this space. It's the dumbest thing you could ever say and totally unrealistic. Think about it this way, maybe .0001% of the world knows what solidity even is.

Or in simpler terms... if those super brilliant nerds who created YAM didn't see the first bug that fooked the rebasing and then after they said hey come save YAM and got all of the wannabe bluecheck twitter fools to retweet same YAM and then they still didn't see the second bug which made the whole save YAM pointless... Do you think you could ever evaluate the risk and DYOR? No.

This thing could explode at any second. The government just confiscated a bunch of cryptocurrency from some terrorist fundraisers and Bitmex is requiring strict KYC. Where we go from here is uncertain. You need to be prepared for an 70-80% loss at any time. If you are squeamish in your pants right now, try to make yourself unsqueamish. Or don't. This thing could blow past the last bubble and we'll see 10bn market caps for everything in DeFi. We hope so.

We know that total loss is the the furthest thing from your mind right now. We just want to gently remind you that it happened before and it can / will happen again. Protect your bags and yourself against a total loss. Go buy something nice for your waifu / baifu. Stablecoins are sexy (but still not totally safu).

Now that we got that out of the way, let's spend the rest of this post discussing things in the world of #YEARN and speculating + shilling the price of $YFI.

$YFI HOLDERS ARE TOTAL DEGENS.

Almost as soon as $YAM launched, the $YFI governance pool was drained as everyone began farming $YAM. It makes total sense. The problem with the $YFI token at the moment is you can't make a ton of money staking it in governance. So when a new opportunity like $YAM arises and they're using the ironclad Synthetix staking contracts, you take it. We just didn't expect to see it happen so fast.

In fact the $YFI pool at $YAM filled up so quickly, that it didn't even make sense to stake there when there were better returns to be found in $COMP and $MKR. This is obvious alpha that few people leak and many people just neglect or forget about.

If distribution is happening equally among the pools, then you want to join the smallest one. By joining the smallest pool, you will have a larger share and thus earn more rewards.

If you're farming $CRV you should try this strategy out...

Given the $YAM pools for $COMP and $MKR were much smaller, the prices for these tokens rose as much as 50% within hours.

This created a lot of pressure on $YFI. Why hold the $YFI when you can jump onto the next opportunity and likely earn a profit and buy back in? That's why we've seen the price go back to the $5k range. Many of the whales were selling large portions as well. When this happens and a baby fish sees their $6k turn into $5k they get scared and jump out. Then the whale who profits on the farming opportunity, can buy back their $YFI at a lower price and actually own more than they started with (important when the supply is capped at 30,000). Finally when you factor in the number of people who bought in solely due to the Binance launch hype, we are surprised that the price isn't closer to $4.5k or where we were pre-binance.

Here's what we expect going forward for $YFI:

We know that the $YFI waifus are the smartest (heh) and most degenerate players in DeFi. They will chase any and all extreme opportunities. Whales will sell their $YFI if it means better yields, but they always buy back in. The question is, can you wait it out?

However things may change in the near future as lending for governance tokens becomes more popular. Currently you can use CREAM finance (founded by $YFI whale Jeff Huang) and supply $YFI and borrow against it. You can do this to farm more $CRV tokens now and earn $CREAM as well.

We expect to see more options like this become available, thus reducing the need to sell $YFI for $MKR or $COMP or whatever is needed next. This will stabilize the price.

Given than $CRV has "officially" launched, it does seem like we're going to have the DeFi truce and calm that Andre requested over twitter.

Just typing those words means it probably won't happen.

But if it does... we can see a massive move happening for $YFI.

The whales are going to dump their $CRV to the poor souls on Uniswap and wherever else before buying $YFI the only protocol token with a P/E ratio only slightly less impressive than $WING-stop.

Eventually something is going to happen to $YFI and it will be too late. This could be soon or it could be after we dip back down to $2k. But it will happen, many will be unprepared and it will be too late to own 1/30000th of the best DeFi token out there. The people waiting for the 1 $YFI = 1 $BTC prophecy to happen may miss it completely.

YEARN + $YFI Happenings

As soon as you type something things change.

So if you're reading this and it's after noon in your timezone, it may be different and it's best to check the official @iearnfiance account.

We'll do our best to fill you in.

The yCRV Vault Update:

You will not earn any $CRV tokens using the $yCRV vault.

Even though the strategy is farming $CRV, you will not get any. When you withdrawal you'll pay a 0.5% fee and get more $yCRV back than you started out with depending on your time in the vault.

Currently strategy: Selling CRV for DAI, putting into vault for yDAI, then adding to yCRV pool. (thx graham)

But you will not earn any $CRV.

To earn $CRV you must withdrawal your $yCRV from the vault and then stake them over at Curve.

This strategy was implemented after the price of $CRV stabilized.

A lot of people were asking if the vaults would farm $YAM. This didn't happen due to the a few factors covered below.

If YEARN did farm the YAM/yCRV pool, it would have run into a major problem when $YAM collapsed.

It's good to know that customers can feel safu using YEARN knowing that the vaults focus on sustainable long-term solutions.

NEW VAULTS ADDED:

In the midst of all of the excitement a few things were missed in YEARN.

Vaults were added for:

  • TUSD (TrueUSD)

  • USDT (Tether)

  • LINK (Chainlink)

  • aLINK (aave Link)

The most updated strategies can always be found at the link below:

Since governance is including updates for docs, we will upload community posts as they are submitted and then shifting to a "blog" where we'll cover what's happening in DeFi specifically how it relates to $YFI.

New content on the site will help onboard new users to YEARN and to $YFI.

Sorry for lack of content we've been busy and stuff.

@learn2yearn